Record for Italian agri-food exports: exceeded 70 billion. What will be the impact of US tariffs now?

While Ferrero, the largest non-automotive manufacturing group in Italy, buys the American Kellogg, Italian agri-food exports in the last twelve months from June 2024 to May 2025 exceed 70 billion euros for the first time. Agri-food is a key sector of the Italian economy: 1.4 million employed, over 250 billion in production value and over 80 billion in added value. But what will be the impact of US tariffs now?

In the last twelve "flowing" months from June 2024 to May 2025, Italian agri-food exports exceeded 70 billion euros per year for the first time, reaching 70.7 billion to be precise. At the end of 2015, exports did not reach 37 billion: therefore, we are faced with a case of almost doubling in ten years, a great success of Made in Italy (see figure 1).

In 2024, exports from agriculture amounted to 9.3 billion euros, those from the food, beverage and tobacco industry were 59.8 billion, for a total of 69.1 billion. But the growth in the first part of this year was notable and now even "70" has been breached. In fact, in the first five months of 2025 alone, exports of agri-food products increased by 5.6%. If this increase were projected on an annual basis, exports could even reach 73 billion in 2025. But there is a third problem: the 15% American duties on European products on which the United States and the European Union reached an agreement last July 27 in Scotland.

Exports and acquisitions: a rapidly expanding sector

It's not just exports, though. In fact, the Italian agri-food sector is also growing through acquisitions. In recent weeks Ferrero bought W.K. Kellogg, while the Newlat group, headed by the Salerno entrepreneur Mastrolia, who had already recently acquired Plasmon and the historic former Cinzano factory in the province of Cuneo, also took over Carrefour Italia, creating an unprecedented integration between the food industry and large-scale retail trade, with the aim of also relaunching the GS brand.

In particular, the acquisition of the American giant W.K. Kellogg, a historic brand in breakfast cereals, by Ferrero is a further extraordinary sign of vitality in the Italian agri-food sector, of which the Ferrero group is the spearhead. With the acquisition of Kellogg, the Alba-based company aims to well exceed 20 billion euros in turnover and consolidate its position as the leading Italian non-automotive manufacturing multinational. “This is more than just an acquisition: it represents the union of two companies, each with a proud heritage and generations of loyal consumers,” Giovanni Ferrero, Executive Chairman of the Group, said in a statement, underlining how the operation is “a milestone” in the company's path in North America, instilling “confidence in the opportunities” ahead. Ferrero in North America currently has more than 14,000 employees in 22 factories and 11 offices. Globally it has more than 47 thousand employees: a formidable reality of Italian family entrepreneurship, with an industrial history of continuous successes and iconic brands, starting with Nutella.

The unstoppable and brilliant success story of Ferrero, a company that could be defined in summary with three words that summarize the merits of its founding family and its managers - genius, seriousness and solidity - is the "cherry" on the cake of a continuously developing Italian agri-food sector. Agriculture and the food and beverage industry, put together, constitute the most important slice of the Italian non-service production system, excluding construction, with employment in 2024 of 1 million and 431 thousand people, an added value in the same year of 81.4 billion euros and a production value (the Istat data in this case is from 2022) of 257 billion. These are the figures provided by the national accounts.

These numbers are accompanied by those of foreign agri-food trade, which has been the protagonist of an epochal change in the last decade. In fact, given Italy's strong chronic dependence on foreign countries for cereals and soya, as well as for live animals, fish and poorly processed food products such as fresh meat and milk, the Italian agri-food balance has been in the red for decades. In 2014 this balance was still negative by 7.6 billion euros. The situation today is completely reversed. In 2023, for the first time, there was a small surplus of around 750 million, which became 1 billion in 2024. A reversal resulting from the formidable successes of our food, drink and tobacco industry, which only ten years ago, in 2014, still had a deficit of 562 million euros and now, at the end of 2024, can instead show off a huge surplus of 14.2 billion.

How was such an all-round success possible? Not only for the exports carried out by large groups from Italy (several of which also have production all over the world to directly serve local markets) such as Ferrero, Barilla, Lavazza, Rana, etc. but for a harmonious growth of the entire agri-food sector in all its sectors. Take cheese for example. In 2024, Italy was the world's second largest cheese exporter, with 5.8 billion dollars, after Germany, with 6.7 billion, after overtaking France and the Netherlands. This is thanks to our leadership in hard cheeses, gorgonzola and mozzarella. Italy is then naturally the world's leading exporter of pasta, with 4.7 billion dollars, of tomato derivatives, with 3.2 billion dollars, and of hams, with 1.3 billion dollars. Without forgetting that we are the second world exporter of wines (still and sparkling), with 8.8 billion dollars, after France, with 12.7 billion, the world's first exporter of vermouth and vinegars, with, respectively, 291 and 394 million dollars, the world's first exporter of apples, with 1.1 billion dollars and the second world exporter of roasted coffee, with 2.2 billion dollars, after Switzerland, with 3.7 billion.

In the first five months of 2025, Italian exports of agricultural, forestry and fishing products were 4.4 billion euros (table 1), up 9.4% compared to the same period last year, the synthesis of a 10.8% increase in exports to EU countries (our main markets, with 3.5 billion) and a 4.3% increase to non-EU countries (0.9 billion). Sales of agricultural products to Germany (+12.6%), France (+7.5%), Austria (+11.2) and Spain (+16.6%) showed strong progress.

Also in the period January-May 2025, Italian exports of food, drink and tobacco products reached 25.7 billion euros (table 2), recording a progress of 5% compared to the first five months of 2024, the synthesis of a growth of 7.1% towards EU countries (with exports amounting to 14.2 billion) and a more contained development of +2.4% towards the non-EU (which absorbed 11.5 billion). The greatest increases in exports of food, drink and tobacco products were recorded towards Spain (+16.5%), Poland (+17.1%), Romania (+10.2%) and the Netherlands (+9%), while outside the EU the increases of 6.9% in sales to the United States (where, however, there may have been hoarding phenomena in view of the tariff increases) and 11.3% in sales to Turkey stand out.

Agri-food exports and US duties

The impetuous dynamics of our agri-food exports could, however, now collide with the wall of American duties of 15% on European products, the result of the long and tiring negotiations between the United States and the European Union, which culminated with the handshake between Donald Trump and Ursula von der Leyen in the American tycoon's Scottish residence on 27 July. An outcome that some countries (for example Germany) and production sectors (for example cars) have welcomed with relative satisfaction because it is considered a reasonable compromise and because it puts an end to a long period of uncertainty for economic operators. Others have instead judged it as a "Scottish shower" for the EU, considered too compliant in the face of the US giant and accused of having bowed to Trump's diktats without counteracting any commercial reprisals of its own (for example in services and digital).

In Italy, some sectors, such as the agricultural and industrial ones in general, and sectors, such as the wine sector, have expressed strong concerns about the impact of the 15% duties on exports to the United States, made more difficult also by the contemporary weakening of the dollar. We remind you that the most important agri-food products that the United States imports from Italy are: still wines, sparkling wines, olive oil, pasta, cheeses, mineral waters, sauces and condiments.

The Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni underlined that it will be necessary to evaluate the agreement in detail, considering any possible exemptions for some products, as well as possible national and European support measures in favor of the most affected sectors. We will therefore have to wait a few more weeks to have a complete picture of the situation.