Italian agri-food continues its unstoppable growth despite tariffs and global uncertainties

The Italian agri-food system confirms itself as one of the pillars of the national economy.Despite the uncertainties linked to American duties, especially in the wine and pasta sectors, exports continue to record record results.In 2024, Italian agriculture also took first place in the European Union for added value, strengthening its role of excellence and competitiveness at an international level.

Italian agriculture returns to the top in Europe

In 2023 and 2024 theItalyregained thefirst placein Europe foragricultural added value,again surpassing the main competitors andconsolidating its leadership.A goal of great importance, because the added value represents thewealth actually created by the sector,net of intermediate costs, and is therefore the most faithful indicator of itssolidity and competitiveness.

After having led Europe uninterruptedly from 2013 to 2021, Italy had temporarily handed over the lead to France in 2022. The initial estimates suggested that the gap would also be maintained in 2023, but the new Eurostat and Istat data tell another story: our country not only recovered the top position already in 2023, butin 2024 it has further extended the distances.Italian agriculturehas in fact achieved aadded value of 43.0 billion euros,ahead of Spain with 38.5 billion, France with 35.4 billion and Germany with 31.1 billion,generating alone over 18% of the overall agricultural wealth of the European Union.

This record is even more significant if we consider the reduced weight of public subsidies in our country. In 2024, Italy received 5.3 billion euros in aid, compared to 8.6 billion in France, 7.4 billion in Germany and 5.6 billion in Spain.The ratio between subsidies and agricultural added value was thus 12.4% in Italy,against 24.3% in France, 23.7% in Germany and 14.6% in Spain, compared to an EU average of 22.6%.

Italian agriculture,so, not only thatgenerates more wealth,but he doeswith less external support,demonstrating that they know how to compete thanks toquality of production,atefficiencyand tocapacity for innovation.Amodel of excellencewhich confirms the centrality of our country in the European agricultural scenario.

Italian agriculture: growing production and employment

2024 was a positive year for Italian agriculture, which recorded more sustained growth than the national economy. Istat certifies this in its latest report on the trend of the agricultural economy (year 2024).

Production increased by 0.6% in volume and added value by 2.0%(against +0.7% of overall GDP according to the latest revisions).

Theagri-food sector– which includes agriculture, forestry, fishing and the food industry – did even better: added valuegrew by +3.0% in volume,driven by the food, beverage and tobacco industry (+3.9%). The share of agri-food added value on the national total rose to 4.2%, confirming the strategic role of the supply chain (also with a strengthening of the weight of the primary sector).

The improvement does not only concern volumes: agricultural sales prices grew by 1.8%, while the costs of inputs supported by farmers collapsed by -7.1% (energy -15.2%, fertilizers -13.5%). This resulted in aincreased profitability,measured by the so-called terms of trade: the ratio between the prices of products sold (output) and those of goods purchased (input). In 2024 this indicator rose by 9.6%, signaling wider margins for agricultural businesses. In other words, revenues grew while costs fell, creating favorable economic conditions for the industry.

Employment also grew: +0.7% in the agricultural sector and +1.6% in the agri-food sector,thanks above all to employees (+3.1%), while independents decreased (-0.7%). In the food industry, labor input increased by 3.9%, a sign of an expanding supply chain.

Industrial production: food products are holding up well in the context of weakness

The analysis of the most recent data (January-July 2025 compared to the same period of 2024) confirms adivergent dynamics among manufacturingas a wholeand the agri-food industry sector.

After the growth phase of 2021 and the subsequent decline that began in the second half of 2022,manufacturing continues to show weakness:in the first seven months of 2025 it recorded an average contraction of -1.5% compared to the previous year (while the total industry recorded -0.8%).

If we compare the current levels (updated to July 2025 and with a base of 2021 =100), the distance is evident: manufacturing stands at 95.2 (-4.8 points), total industry at 94.2 (-5.8 points).

On the contrary, the food, beverage and tobacco sector not only maintains a higher level than 2021 (104.2) but also grows compared to the same period (January-July) of the previous year (+1.6%). Within this aggregate thefood industries,which reach 105.9 with a trend increase of +2.5% compared to 2024 (whilethe wine and beverage sector continues to decline).

In summary, there is a double divergence that began about 2 years ago and is confirmed in recent developments: on the one hand, between the trend of the agri-food sector and that of the overall manufacturing sector; on the other, within the same agri-food sector, wherefood is driving the good performance, while wines and drinks remain in difficulty.

Italian agri-food exports reach a historic milestone

The Italian agri-food sector celebrates aunprecedented result:for the first timeexporthas exceeded the threshold of 70 billion euros,standing at 71.1 billion in the rolling year from July 2024 to June 2025. A milestone that marks a realdoubling compared to 2014,when exports stopped below 35 billion. In ten years, thestrength of Made in Italyhas been able to establish itself on international markets thanks to a winning combination ofquality, innovation and tradition.

According to the latest Istat data,in the first six months of 2025, exports of agri-food products grew by +5.8%compared to the same period of the previous year.Agriculture recorded an increase of +10.1%(471.1 million euros), while the food and beverage industry reached 30.8 billion euros, up by +5.2%. At the end of 2024, agricultural exports amounted to 9.3 billion and those from the food, beverage and tobacco industry to 59.8 billion, for a total of 69.1 billion euros.

For decades, the overall Italian agri-food balance has remained in the red, due to the strong dependence on foreign countries for cereals, soya, live animals, fish and low-processed products such as fresh meat and milk. In 2014 the negative balance amounted to 7.6 billion euros. Today the scenario has completely changed:in 2023a registered for the first timesmall surplus of around 750 million,increased to 1 billion in 2024. A trend reversal driven by the extraordinary results of the food, beverage and tobacco industry, which in just ten years went from a deficit of 562 million (2014) to a surplus of 14.2 billion euros (2024).

These numbers tell a storyhistory of harmonious growth and widespread excellence,which led Italy to conquerworld recordsin numerous sectors.In 2024 our country became the second largest exporter of cheese in the world(5.8 billion dollars), surpassing France and the Netherlands and placing itself behind only Germany (6.7 billion), thanks to its leadership in hard cheeses, gorgonzola and mozzarella. Italy then confirms itselffirst world exporter of pasta(4.7 billion dollars),tomato derivatives(3.2 billion)and hams(1.3 billion).

The wine sector also continues to shine:we are the second world exporter of wines (8.8 billion dollars), after France (12.7 billion), and first in the world for vermouth and vinegars, with exports of 291 and 394 million dollars respectively. Two other records complete the picture: world leader in apple exports (1.1 billion dollars) and second place in roasted coffee (2.2 billion), behind only Switzerland.

Italian agri-food thus demonstrates that it is not only an economic pillar, but also an ambassador of Italian culture and lifestyle in the world.

The “Magnificent 7”: pillars of Italian agri-food exports

In the last year (running to the 2nd quarter of 2025), Italian agri-food exports consolidate the expansion phase: if the total agri-food exceeds the threshold of 70 billion euros, the "Magnificent 7" reach 42.0 billion. Growth is therefore more lively in the perimeter of the "Magnificent 7" (7.7% compared to a growth of 7% in the sector), confirming their leading role within the agri-food basket.

Within the "Magnificent 7", very heterogeneous trend variations emerge:chocolate and preparations with cocoa (+23.5%), cheeses and dairy products (+13.7%) and baked goods (+10.5%) stand out, all growing in double digits. Preserved animals (+7.2%) and processed vegetables and fruit (+6.4%) were also positive. Instead, the progress for grape wines (+3.1%) and pasta and rice (+1.8%) is more moderate. On the economic front, almost all segments are advancing; the exceptions are wines (-0.4%) and pasta and rice (-0.7%), which perhaps also show weakness due to the tariff policies implemented or threatened by the Trump administration.

In absolute value, the leadership in terms of size remains with processed vegetables and fruit (12.6 billion), followed by wines (8.1 billion), cheeses and dairy products (5.8 billion), pasta and rice (5.2 billion), baked products (4.5 billion), chocolate (3.2 billion) and animal preserves (2.7 billion).

Almost two thirds (59%) of the value exported by the agri-food sector depends on these seven pillars,which are therefore fundamental for the competitiveness of Made in Italy in the world.

Among these, the primacy belongs toprocessed vegetable products:processed vegetables and fruit lead the ranking, also thanks to the growing demand for healthy, practical and ready-to-eat foods. It is a trend that reflects thenew eating habitsand theresearch for sustainable products,especially in the more advanced markets.

Another key element is the orientation towards the high end of the range: the strong growth of cheeses and dairy products (+13.7%) and chocolate (+23.5%) demonstrates thatinternational consumers reward quality,tradition and DOP/IGP certifications.These segments do not compete on price, but on distinctiveness and perceived value, and thisstrengthens the premium positioning of Made in Italy.

However, there are signs of weakness: grape wines, pasta and rice show signs of slowing down.The uncertainty linked to US tariff policies weighs heavily.The Trump administration has already introduced duties on Italian wines and is threatening super duties on pasta following a rather dubious anti-dumping investigation. The US market is worth around 1.9 billion euros for wine and over 0.7 for pasta. Unregulated tariff impositions risk having serious effects on two symbolic supply chains of Made in Italy. It is not surprising that trade associations have already asked to take measures at EU and international level to avoid a trade war that would hit the heart of Italian agri-food.