Restaurants in Italy: who will lead the next wave of growth?

By Umberto Orsenigo, Consultant for Business Excellence

Italian catering has never been just about food. It is culture, it is social habit, it is status, and in recent years it has also become a field of confrontation between independents and chains, tradition and innovation, experience and speed. In 2024 the sector has reached quota83 billion eurosequal to a third of total food consumption in Italy, marking the definitive exit from the pandemic tunnel and a stabilization which, at least on paper, should reassure operators and investors. But the numbers, as often happens, only tell part of the story.

If we go back ten years, the market was worth it79 billion euros,divided quite clearly: 1% street food, when “food truck” was still the magic word for appearing innovative; 20% cafés and bars; 27% of QSR (Quick Service Restaurant, essentially fast food and similar); and 52% of FSR (Full Service Restaurant, traditional catering with full service). A decade later, the sector shows growth in absolute terms, while maintaining the distribution of its components unchanged. The difference is the pace of growth: QSRs recorded aCAGR 2019-2024 of 3.4%,the highest of all. Translated:speed beats conviviality, at least from the point of view of market dynamics.

A further aspect that enriches the overall reading of the market is the following: the90% of the market is still in the hands of independents,while the chains1they divide the remaining 10%. Little? It depends on the point of view. In2019were just at 7%, so we are talking about three percentage points gained in five years. If we cross the two lenses - QSR and FSR on the one hand, independents and chains on the other - a rather clear picture emerges.The chains preside over the QSR field, where the game is played on speed, standardization and convenience, and where the model is built to maximize volumes and frequency of consumption.Internationally, chains show a stronger presence in the QSR segment, which has consistently outpaced the growth of FSR chains across all regions. In Italy it seems like a slow revolution, but if we compare ourselves with the world we discover that we have even faced greater growth: theCAGRofchainsinQSRis al13.3%against oneglobal average of 7.6%.The independents, however, remain strong in the FSR field, where perceived quality, variety and atmosphere count, that is, that set of factors that allows you to sell not just a meal but an experience. The crucial questions remain open: given that chains still weigh relatively little in Italy, are we talking about a great opportunity yet to be seized? Are restaurant chains truly profitable or are they financial black holes? The answer, of course, is not obvious. For those who would like to delve deeper into the second question in particular, please refer to oursarticleprevious where we addressed the topic in depth (spoiler:all that glitters is not gold).

Consumer behaviors are changing rapidly, imposing new challenges on the market. New sensitivities are redesigning the sector: wellness, sustainability and social connection are no longer nice to have, but fundamental drivers. According to Deloitte, the65% of consumersis willing to pay a premium price for sustainable products. TheGen Z, meanwhile, is changing the rules of the game: the21.5% do not consume alcoholand another39%it just doesoccasionally.A silent revolution that has not escaped the attention of the beer greats, who are busy creating new “low & no alcohol” lines. But it's not just a question of product: the very perception of the premises evolves.In 2024, 39% of consumers consider bars and restaurants as places of social connection,against 34% the previous year. And on this front too we recently reported the case ofMixue, the chain that in China has demonstrated that it matters less what you eat or drink and more who sits next to you (exceeding the number of McDonald's outlets).

Deloitte's Food Monitor also reveals an interesting change in the distribution of spending: consumers between 18 and 34 years old are driving the market, while the 34+ group is reducing their spending. However, in my opinion, it is not just a greater propensity of young people, but rather highly seasonal behaviour, with clear peaks in May and August. A dynamic that suggests volatile spending rather than a structural trend.

On the other side of the coin, operators face a less encouraging scenario: rising labor costs, combined with a slower-than-expected market recovery, pushes them to seek efficiency wherever possible. The answers are the ones we know by now:price increase, automation, operational simplification.These range from the simplification of menus, which reduces operational complexity and speeds up service, to the implementation of digital kiosks and automated booking systems, which improve efficiency and customer experience. Alongside these operational levers, more and more attention is being paid to staff management and loyalty, through retention, training and incentive programmes, which are fundamental to guarantee continuity and quality of service in a sector traditionally subject to high turnover.

A further crucial issue concernsthe system's ability to generate value along the entire supply chain,not only in the final administration phase, but also in the upstream steps, from procurement to operational management. Thesupply chain,as it is structured today, it highlights wide margins for improvement: the presence of an excessive number of suppliers, often selected in a fragmented way and without an integration logic, makes purchasing planning and warehouse management complex, slows down delivery processes and multiplies the risks of discontinuity in supply.

This scenario results inoperational inefficiencies,which directly impact both costs and the final customer experience. They contribute to further complicating the situationmenus that are too broad and unfocused,which not only increase the complexity of management in the kitchen, but make it difficult to rationalize the use of raw materials. This leads to a multiplication of inventories, an increase in waste and, above all, an offer that often does not really capture consumer preferences. In a context where the customer is increasingly attentive to the quality, transparency and coherence of the brand, this becomes a significant competitive limit.

A different perspective might come fromformats capable of offering leaner, more focused and replicable kitchens,characterized by alower food costand fromoperating costs significantly lower than traditional models.In other words, it is about moving from a logic of "doing everything for everyone" to a more strategic vision, based on specialization and standardization, without sacrificing perceived quality.

Interesting examples can be observed in the models that point tocompact menus, built around a few iconic dishes but executed with excellence and speed. This approach simplifies the entire supply chain: fewer suppliers, lower inventories, faster processes, less waste and a more consistent service. It is no coincidence that many successful international brands have built their strength on the ability to render their formatsreplicable on a large scale, offering the same experience in every store, regardless of geography or staff employed.

In this context, suppliers can also play a new and more strategic role. No longer mere distributors of raw materials, butconsulting partners, capable of supporting operators in building an efficient offer. This means supporting restaurateurs in menu development, not only in terms of variety and quality, but alsobalance between creativity and efficiency: reduce complexity without impoverishing the gastronomic proposal, creating a clear identity that the customer can recognize and appreciate.

No less relevant is the theme ofwork organisation, which today represents one of the main challenges for the sector. The shortage of qualified personnel and the increase in labor costs have made it clear how urgent it is to rethink internal processes.

All moves necessary to survive, but which inevitably redesign the competitive profile and, sometimes, the consumer experience itself.

Yet, despite compressed margins and increasingly demanding consumers, the sector remains fascinating for capital. Between the2022 and 2025 there were 29 M&A transactionsin the Italian Foodservice market, almost equally divided between FSR and QSR (48% each), with 4% dedicated to cafés and bars. A non-trivial fact: compared to the pre-Covid period, operations on QSRs have doubled, confirming, perhaps, that at least for investors the“fast”remains the most solid bet.

In this fragile balance between pressures from the demand side and pressures from the supply side, between young people who are always looking for something new and operators who are looking for oxygen in the margins, the initial question becomes forceful again: who will really lead the next wave of growth of Foodservice in Italy? There is no certain answer, but the picture suggests that the future of the sector will not be decided only in the kitchen, nor only in the economic accounts: it will be those who know how to read and anticipate tomorrow's consumers, adapting models, experiences and operations, who will gain the competitive advantage. And perhaps, for once, the real difference will not be what is served on the plate, but how and with whom the experience is lived.

1The chains have a minimum of 10 branded points of sale

SOURCES

Deloitte"Foodservice market monitor. Evolutionary frontiers for the Foodservice sector" (2025 edition)Magazine Business Excellence"Transforming a black hole into a showcase for Italian food. Proposals for Italian commercial catering which continues to lose money despite overtourism” articleof 24 February 2025Magazine Business Excellence“Rethinking fast food: how Mixue was able to see what the giants of the sector missed” article dated 31 March 2025